Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 3 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 44¢ · $67K held · ended Oct 31

Yes56¢No44¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$67.3K

Combined PnL

$8.4K

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 43.5¢

-30% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$40.0K

Total Shares64,074

Combined PnL+$356.27

Yes9 traders

Total Value$26.8K

Total Shares48,927

Combined PnL+$8.1K

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH theowalcottCTR	Noavg 61.9¢	$39.6K	$40.0K	+$363.28	50% 109-110 (219)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 38.2¢	$16.8K	$24.8K	+$8.0K	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
HI hi774c	Yesavg 38¢	$616.41	$608.3	-$8.11	52% 4736-4456 (9192)
CA Cannae	Yesavg 38¢	$533.55	$554.61	+$21.06	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
sapupu	Yesavg 38¢	$550	$542.76	-$7.24	58% 72-52 (124)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Yesavg 38.5¢	$522.47	$536.31	+$13.83	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.5¢	$406.24	$417.12	+$10.88
└ No leg	Noavg 59¢	$116.23	$119.19	+$2.96
NO NordhavenCap	Yesavg 44.6¢	$96.13	$111.06	+$14.93	57% 2168-1606 (3774)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 38.6¢	$80.63	$82.56	+$1.93	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$40.37	$61.01	+$20.64	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 54.7¢	$62.38	$55.29	-$7.09	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 62¢	$9.79	$9.87	+$0.08	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$6.16	$6.32	+$0.16	62% 1159-704 (1863)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$2.92	$3.25	+$0.33	53% 2197-1937 (4134)

theowalcottCTR

Invested

$39,601.79

Value

$40.0K

PnL

+$363.28

Record

50%

109-110 (219)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$16,771.41

Value

$24.8K

PnL

+$8.0K

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

hi774c

Yes

Invested

$616.41

Value

$608.3

PnL

-$8.11

Record

52%

4736-4456 (9192)

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$533.55

Value

$554.61

PnL

+$21.06

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

sapupu

Yes

Invested

$550

Value

$542.76

PnL

-$7.24

Record

58%

72-52 (124)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$522.47

Value

$536.31

PnL

+$13.83

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

Both legs:

Yes$406.2438.5¢+$10.88

No$116.2359¢+$2.96

NordhavenCap

Yes

Invested

$96.13

Value

$111.06

PnL

+$14.93

Record

57%

2168-1606 (3774)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.63

Value

$82.56

PnL

+$1.93

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.37

Value

$61.01

PnL

+$20.64

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$62.38

Value

$55.29

PnL

-$7.09

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$9.79

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

lonmi2511<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.16

Value

$6.32

PnL

+$0.16

Record

62%

1159-704 (1863)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.92

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.33

Record

53%

2197-1937 (4134)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 12 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.