Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-10-31?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31

Yes9¢No91¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$406.52

Smart Money Entry

82.4¢ → 91.5¢

+11% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares9,120

Combined PnL+$406.52

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 85.6¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$165.41	50% 25253-24999 (50252)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 85¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$7.89	50% 33515-33076 (66591)
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 64.4¢	$763.74	$983.03	+$219.29	57% 2171-1606 (3777)
HRTrading	Noavg 85¢	$577.07	$587.15	+$10.08	53% 4883-4360 (9243)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 83.7¢	$525.2	$505.84	-$19.36	59% 46056-32360 (78416)
FO foooool	Noavg 82.6¢	$282.8	$296.66	+$13.85	50% 10935-10765 (21700)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 84.8¢	$164.15	$165.44	+$1.29	49% 12704-13137 (25841)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 80.1¢	$101.51	$100.05	-$1.45	49% 8129-8572 (16701)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$75.36	$84.85	+$9.49	52% 13824-12612 (26436)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.13	+$0.03	58% 18684-13749 (32433)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,805.54

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$165.41

Record

50%

25253-24999 (50252)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,341.13

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$7.89

Record

50%

33515-33076 (66591)

NordhavenCap

Invested

$763.74

Value

$983.03

PnL

+$219.29

Record

57%

2171-1606 (3777)

HRTrading

Invested

$577.07

Value

$587.15

PnL

+$10.08

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$525.2

Value

$505.84

PnL

-$19.36

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

foooool

Invested

$282.8

Value

$296.66

PnL

+$13.85

Record

50%

10935-10765 (21700)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$164.15

Value

$165.44

PnL

+$1.29

Record

49%

12704-13137 (25841)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$101.51

Value

$100.05

PnL

-$1.45

Record

49%

8129-8572 (16701)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$75.36

Value

$84.85

PnL

+$9.49

Record

52%

13824-12612 (26436)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

18684-13749 (32433)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.