Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 78¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$85.94

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 78¢

-5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,557

Combined PnL-$112.07

Yes4 traders

Total Value$161.89

Total Shares637

Combined PnL+$26.14

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 82.2¢	$1.1K	$959.15	-$99.52	57% 2171-1606 (3777)
MA manoamano<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$99.35	$87.78	-$11.57	51% 483-463 (946)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.9¢	$78.92	$84.17	+$5.25	59% 46056-32360 (78416)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 85¢	$74.93	$69.87	-$5.07	50% 10935-10765 (21700)
└ No leg	Noavg 85¢	$49.97	$44.39	-$5.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24¢	$24.96	$25.48	+$0.52
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.9¢	$45.92	$65.53	+$19.61	49% 8129-8572 (16701)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 75¢	$53.25	$52.9	-$0.35	58% 28818-21252 (50070)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 75¢	$52.47	$52.12	-$0.35	73% 6703-2419 (9122)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.8¢	$10.17	$10.92	+$0.75	53% 4883-4360 (9243)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 77¢	$8.47	$8.2	-$0.28	52% 13824-12612 (26436)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.75	$1.28	+$0.52	58% 18684-13749 (32433)

NordhavenCap

Invested

$1,058.67

Value

$959.15

PnL

-$99.52

Record

57%

2171-1606 (3777)

manoamano<$100

Invested

$99.35

Value

$87.78

PnL

-$11.57

Record

51%

483-463 (946)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.92

Value

$84.17

PnL

+$5.25

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$74.93

Value

$69.87

PnL

-$5.07

Record

50%

10935-10765 (21700)

Both legs:

Invested

$45.92

Value

$65.53

PnL

+$19.61

Record

49%

8129-8572 (16701)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$53.25

Value

$52.9

PnL

-$0.35

Record

58%

28818-21252 (50070)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$52.47

Value

$52.12

PnL

-$0.35

Record

73%

6703-2419 (9122)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.17

Value

$10.92

PnL

+$0.75

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$8.47

Value

$8.2

PnL

-$0.28

Record

52%

13824-12612 (26436)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.52

Record

58%

18684-13749 (32433)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.