San Jose Earthquakes vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 4.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 76¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$6.8K
$-2.4K
80.2¢ → 76¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 78.5¢ | $6.0K | $4.2K | $-1.7K | 59% 44933-31331 (76264) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 83.7¢ | $2.8K | $1.9K | -$812.44 | 50% 24584-24250 (48834) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 14.1¢ | $179.05 | $305.27 | +$126.23 | 49% 12313-12578 (24891) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 83.7¢ | $265.78 | $271.42 | +$5.64 | 50% 32969-32506 (65475) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $95.97 | $88.98 | -$6.99 | 50% 10665-10524 (21189) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 78.5¢ | $46.18 | $46.2 | +$0.02 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 25¢ | $49.79 | $42.79 | -$7.01 | |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $0.41 | $0.7 | +$0.3 | 59% 9529-6541 (16070) |
Invested
$5,954.24
Value
$4.2K
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
59%
44933-31331 (76264)
Invested
$2,756.33
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$812.44
Record
50%
24584-24250 (48834)
Invested
$179.05
Value
$305.27
PnL
+$126.23
Record
49%
12313-12578 (24891)
Invested
$265.78
Value
$271.42
PnL
+$5.64
Record
50%
32969-32506 (65475)
Invested
$95.97
Value
$88.98
PnL
-$6.99
Record
50%
10665-10524 (21189)
Both legs:
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.41
Value
$0.7
PnL
+$0.3
Record
59%
9529-6541 (16070)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.