Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-10-28?

12 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 87¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 29

Yes13¢No87¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

-$433.76

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 87.3¢

+19% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 19 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares13,249

Combined PnL-$315.89

Yes7 traders

Total Value$305.87

Total Shares3,268

Combined PnL-$117.87

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 92.3¢	$5.3K	$4.6K	-$712	59% 44933-31331 (76264)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 59.6¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$381.17	50% 24584-24250 (48834)
TO torta.tech	Noavg 64.9¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$37.69	63% 7987-4779 (12766)
MA marketmesh	Noavg 59¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$11.81	58% 91-67 (158)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 57¢	$199.5	$222.25	+$22.75	51% 1330-1269 (2599)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 66.1¢	$216.11	$220.6	+$4.48	49% 12313-12578 (24891)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$158.96	$170.61	+$11.65	52% 13603-12436 (26039)
└ No leg	Noavg 68.5¢	$107.79	$136.37	+$28.58
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20¢	$51.17	$34.24	-$16.93
CA Cannae	Noavg 56.9¢	$142.73	$147.92	+$5.2	53% 15797-13980 (29777)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 28.8¢	$136.29	$133.22	-$3.07	50% 10665-10524 (21189)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 70.9¢	$91.35	$96.07	+$4.72	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
GH ghostorderCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$87.36	$82.82	-$4.54	62% 4293-2649 (6942)
RO Rocko33<$100	Noavg 74¢	$50	$48.99	-$1.01	64% 1037-588 (1625)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$48.68	$48.68	-$0	53% 2109-1869 (3978)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Noavg 52¢	$26	$30.25	+$4.25	47% 4483-4963 (9446)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Yesavg 28.5¢	$119.19	$20.9	-$98.29	57% 2083-1561 (3644)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 64¢	$15.2	$15.64	+$0.44	58% 18445-13532 (31977)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$12.11	$14.89	+$2.78	50% 32969-32506 (65475)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$3.75	$3.68	-$0.07	67% 23153-11555 (34708)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 59¢	$2.95	$2.95	-$0	47% 2109-2394 (4503)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$16.36	$1.67	-$14.69	59% 9529-6541 (16070)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$5,285.35

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$712

Record

59%

44933-31331 (76264)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,475.23

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$381.17

Record

50%

24584-24250 (48834)

torta.tech

Invested

$1,782.67

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$37.69

Record

63%

7987-4779 (12766)

marketmesh

Invested

$1,393.72

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$11.81

Record

58%

91-67 (158)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$199.5

Value

$222.25

PnL

+$22.75

Record

51%

1330-1269 (2599)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$216.11

Value

$220.6

PnL

+$4.48

Record

49%

12313-12578 (24891)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$158.96

Value

$170.61

PnL

+$11.65

Record

52%

13603-12436 (26039)

Both legs:

No$107.7968.5¢+$28.58

Yes$51.1720¢-$16.93

Cannae

Invested

$142.73

Value

$147.92

PnL

+$5.2

Record

53%

15797-13980 (29777)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$136.29

Value

$133.22

PnL

-$3.07

Record

50%

10665-10524 (21189)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$91.35

Value

$96.07

PnL

+$4.72

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

ghostorderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.36

Value

$82.82

PnL

-$4.54

Record

62%

4293-2649 (6942)

Rocko33<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$48.99

PnL

-$1.01

Record

64%

1037-588 (1625)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.68

Value

$48.68

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2109-1869 (3978)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Invested

$26

Value

$30.25

PnL

+$4.25

Record

47%

4483-4963 (9446)

NordhavenCapCTR

Yes

Invested

$119.19

Value

$20.9

PnL

-$98.29

Record

57%

2083-1561 (3644)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$15.2

Value

$15.64

PnL

+$0.44

Record

58%

18445-13532 (31977)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.11

Value

$14.89

PnL

+$2.78

Record

50%

32969-32506 (65475)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$0.07

Record

67%

23153-11555 (34708)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

2109-2394 (4503)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.36

Value

$1.67

PnL

-$14.69

Record

59%

9529-6541 (16070)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 19 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.8%

87.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.