Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
San Jose Earthquakes leading at halftime?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$2.0K
-$26.02
33.1¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR | Yesavg 33.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$29 | 25% 91-277 (368) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 66.9¢ | $584.98 | $586.23 | +$5.63 | 58% 41030-29693 (70723) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $1.65 | -$2.05 | 49% 12313-12578 (24891) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $0.6 | $0.01 | -$0.6 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
Invested
$1,445
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$29
Record
25%
91-277 (368)
VeryLucky888Invested
$584.98
Value
$586.23
PnL
+$5.63
Record
58%
41030-29693 (70723)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$1.65
PnL
-$2.05
Record
49%
12313-12578 (24891)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.6
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.