Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. Colorado Rapids SC end in a draw?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 77¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 29

Yes77¢No23¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$807.95

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 77¢

+30% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares7,235

Combined PnL+$1.1K

No6 traders

Total Value$606.64

Total Shares1,713

Combined PnL-$295.24

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 60¢	$4.2K	$5.3K	+$1.1K	59% 44933-31331 (76264)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 54.4¢	$707.78	$416.52	-$291.27	50% 24584-24250 (48834)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 33.3¢	$95.16	$91.52	-$3.64	49% 12313-12578 (24891)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 51.6¢	$44.55	$50.49	+$5.94	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Noavg 75¢	$54.75	$50.37	-$4.38	57% 2083-1561 (3644)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Noavg 69¢	$27.87	$31.2	+$3.33	52% 13603-12436 (26039)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$25.45	$27.71	+$2.26	47% 4483-4963 (9446)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$23.09	$23.4	+$0.31	50% 10665-10524 (21189)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$18.25	$17.15	-$1.1	50% 32969-32506 (65475)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Noavg 73¢	$12.41	$13.01	+$0.6	54% 4819-4049 (8868)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$5.9	$6.04	+$0.13	59% 9529-6541 (16070)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 78¢	$3.9	$4.03	+$0.13	58% 18445-13532 (31977)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$4,236.71

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

59%

44933-31331 (76264)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$707.78

Value

$416.52

PnL

-$291.27

Record

50%

24584-24250 (48834)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$95.16

Value

$91.52

PnL

-$3.64

Record

49%

12313-12578 (24891)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.55

Value

$50.49

PnL

+$5.94

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Invested

$54.75

Value

$50.37

PnL

-$4.38

Record

57%

2083-1561 (3644)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Invested

$27.87

Value

$31.2

PnL

+$3.33

Record

52%

13603-12436 (26039)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.45

Value

$27.71

PnL

+$2.26

Record

47%

4483-4963 (9446)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.09

Value

$23.4

PnL

+$0.31

Record

50%

10665-10524 (21189)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.25

Value

$17.15

PnL

-$1.1

Record

50%

32969-32506 (65475)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Invested

$12.41

Value

$13.01

PnL

+$0.6

Record

54%

4819-4049 (8868)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.9

Value

$6.04

PnL

+$0.13

Record

59%

9529-6541 (16070)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.13

Record

58%

18445-13532 (31977)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.