Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-10-28?

12 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 92¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 29

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.1K

Combined PnL

-$263.95

Smart Money Entry

72.3¢ → 92¢

+27% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 19 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares21,898

Combined PnL+$0.83

No12 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares18,100

Combined PnL-$264.77

Yes — 37%No — 63%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vivy214CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$79.34	— 4-1 (5)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 73.3¢	$3.2K	$3.4K	+$269.85	59% 44933-31331 (76264)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 74¢	$3.5K	$3.3K	-$163.24	50% 32969-32506 (65475)
GH ghostorder	Noavg 76.7¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$284.39	62% 4293-2649 (6942)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 75.8¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$227.24	50% 24584-24250 (48834)
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR	Yesavg 27¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$27.78	25% 91-277 (368)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 61¢	$1.1K	$537.43	-$555.41	49% 12313-12578 (24891)
HRTrading	Noavg 75.8¢	$414.66	$459.42	+$44.76	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
TO torta.tech	Noavg 69.9¢	$297.03	$299.42	+$2.39	63% 7987-4779 (12766)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yesavg 35.6¢	$239.83	$279.74	+$39.92	52% 13603-12436 (26039)
└ No leg	Noavg 36.5¢	$93.93	$220.28	+$126.35
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.6¢	$145.9	$59.46	-$86.43
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 65.6¢	$613.1	$247.61	-$365.5	57% 2083-1561 (3644)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$38	$98.17	+$60.17	59% 30140-20887 (51027)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 76¢	$94.62	$95.24	+$0.62	50% 10665-10524 (21189)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$50	$48.96	-$1.04	64% 1037-588 (1625)
MA manoamano<$100	Noavg 26¢	$49.26	$39.79	-$9.47	51% 451-436 (887)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.8¢	$44.79	$37.97	-$6.82	59% 9529-6541 (16070)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 70¢	$37.92	$37.02	-$0.75	53% 15797-13980 (29777)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 73¢	$7.3	$7.65	+$0.35	58% 18445-13532 (31977)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$3.19	$3.28	+$0.09	67% 23153-11555 (34708)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.65	+$0	47% 2109-2394 (4503)

vivy214CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,808.38

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$79.34

Record

—

4-1 (5)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$3,153.28

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$269.85

Record

59%

44933-31331 (76264)

SnakeBall

Invested

$3,473.39

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$163.24

Record

50%

32969-32506 (65475)

ghostorder

Invested

$2,476.62

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$284.39

Record

62%

4293-2649 (6942)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,920.7

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$227.24

Record

50%

24584-24250 (48834)

0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$27.78

Record

25%

91-277 (368)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,092.84

Value

$537.43

PnL

-$555.41

Record

49%

12313-12578 (24891)

HRTrading

Invested

$414.66

Value

$459.42

PnL

+$44.76

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

torta.tech

Invested

$297.03

Value

$299.42

PnL

+$2.39

Record

63%

7987-4779 (12766)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$239.83

Value

$279.74

PnL

+$39.92

Record

52%

13603-12436 (26039)

Both legs:

No$93.9336.5¢+$126.35

Yes$145.935.6¢-$86.43

NordhavenCap

Invested

$613.1

Value

$247.61

PnL

-$365.5

Record

57%

2083-1561 (3644)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38

Value

$98.17

PnL

+$60.17

Record

59%

30140-20887 (51027)

foooool<$100

Invested

$94.62

Value

$95.24

PnL

+$0.62

Record

50%

10665-10524 (21189)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$48.96

PnL

-$1.04

Record

64%

1037-588 (1625)

manoamano<$100

Invested

$49.26

Value

$39.79

PnL

-$9.47

Record

51%

451-436 (887)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.79

Value

$37.97

PnL

-$6.82

Record

59%

9529-6541 (16070)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$37.92

Value

$37.02

PnL

-$0.75

Record

53%

15797-13980 (29777)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$0.35

Record

58%

18445-13532 (31977)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.19

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.09

Record

67%

23153-11555 (34708)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2109-2394 (4503)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 19 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.