Seattle Sounders FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 2.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 90¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 29

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

$4.5K

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 90¢

+61% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares11,511

Combined PnL+$4.3K

Over4 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares11,188

Combined PnL+$190.5

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 55.8¢	$6.1K	$10.4K	+$4.2K	59% 44933-31331 (76264)
CH chongchong37CTR	Overavg 47¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$50	54% 88-76 (164)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 59.8¢	$4.6K	$3.1K	$-1.5K	50% 24584-24250 (48834)
└ Under leg	Underavg 62.9¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$320
└ Over leg	Overavg 59.8¢	$3.1K	$1.3K	$-1.9K
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 41¢	$451	$682	+$231	57% 2083-1561 (3644)
HRTrading	Underavg 51.1¢	$70.87	$134.59	+$63.72	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
poshposh	Underavg 87¢	$130.5	$133.5	+$3	59% 9529-6541 (16070)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 46.3¢	$75.73	$82.69	+$6.96	50% 32969-32506 (65475)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$44.19	$51.05	+$6.86	56% 6940-5557 (12497)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 62.8¢	$37.31	$50.29	+$12.98	50% 10665-10524 (21189)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 39.1¢	$11.48	$15.57	+$4.09	49% 12313-12578 (24891)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$5.4	$8.04	+$2.64	55% 8132-6565 (14697)
MO mooseborzoii<$100	Underavg 41¢	$3.47	$2.8	-$0.68	50% 1145-1138 (2283)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$6,113.06

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

59%

44933-31331 (76264)

chongchong37CTR

Over

Invested

$4,700

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$50

Record

54%

88-76 (164)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,647.86

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

50%

24584-24250 (48834)

Both legs:

Under$1,534.462.9¢+$320

Over$3,113.4659.8¢$-1.9K

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$451

Value

$682

PnL

+$231

Record

57%

2083-1561 (3644)

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$70.87

Value

$134.59

PnL

+$63.72

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

poshposh

Under

Invested

$130.5

Value

$133.5

PnL

+$3

Record

59%

9529-6541 (16070)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$75.73

Value

$82.69

PnL

+$6.96

Record

50%

32969-32506 (65475)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.19

Value

$51.05

PnL

+$6.86

Record

56%

6940-5557 (12497)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$37.31

Value

$50.29

PnL

+$12.98

Record

50%

10665-10524 (21189)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$11.48

Value

$15.57

PnL

+$4.09

Record

49%

12313-12578 (24891)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.4

Value

$8.04

PnL

+$2.64

Record

55%

8132-6565 (14697)

mooseborzoii<$100

Under

Invested

$3.47

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.68

Record

50%

1145-1138 (2283)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.