Seattle Sounders FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 88¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 29

Over13¢Under87¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

$3.6K

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 87.5¢

+82% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over13%

Under88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares17,539

Combined PnL+$4.4K

Over1 trader

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares8,747

Combined PnL-$807.26

Under — 88%Over — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 48.5¢	$7.2K	$11.0K	+$3.9K	59% 44933-31331 (76264)
PE penguin1125CTR	Overavg 45.7¢	$4.0K	$3.2K	-$807.26	47% 109-121 (230)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 53.4¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$36.69	50% 24584-24250 (48834)
└ Under leg	Underavg 36.4¢	$933.17	$1.8K	+$913.52
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.4¢	$1.8K	$966.43	-$876.84
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 51.8¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$450.15	49% 12313-12578 (24891)
poshposhARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$495.25	$357.64	-$137.61	59% 9529-6541 (16070)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$346.75	$184.31	-$162.44
└ Under leg	Underavg 63.8¢	$148.5	$173.33	+$24.83
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 15.1¢	$54.28	$147.13	+$92.84	50% 32969-32506 (65475)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Underavg 37.6¢	$54.85	$78.82	+$23.97	53% 3117-2749 (5866)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 41¢	$60.34	$76.55	+$16.2	50% 10665-10524 (21189)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 40¢	$9.69	$18.45	+$8.76	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Underavg 73¢	$5.54	$5.46	-$0.08	53% 707-635 (1342)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$7,176.6

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

59%

44933-31331 (76264)

penguin1125CTR

Over

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$807.26

Record

47%

109-121 (230)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,776.44

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$36.69

Record

50%

24584-24250 (48834)

Both legs:

Under$933.1736.4¢+$913.52

Over$1,843.2753.4¢-$876.84

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$1,090.05

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$450.15

Record

49%

12313-12578 (24891)

poshposhARB<$100

Over

Invested

$495.25

Value

$357.64

PnL

-$137.61

Record

59%

9529-6541 (16070)

Both legs:

Over$346.7548¢-$162.44

Under$148.563.8¢+$24.83

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$54.28

Value

$147.13

PnL

+$92.84

Record

50%

32969-32506 (65475)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Under

Invested

$54.85

Value

$78.82

PnL

+$23.97

Record

53%

3117-2749 (5866)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$60.34

Value

$76.55

PnL

+$16.2

Record

50%

10665-10524 (21189)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$9.69

Value

$18.45

PnL

+$8.76

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

RichieRicher<$100

Under

Invested

$5.54

Value

$5.46

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

707-635 (1342)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.