Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Houston Dynamo (50%) · Houston Dynamo at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29

Seattle Sounders FC<1¢Houston Dynamo>99¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Houston Dynamo

Consensus Traders

Houston Dynamo 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$95.36

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 99.6¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralHouston Dynamo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Houston Dynamo

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Seattle Sounders FC0%

Houston Dynamo100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Houston Dynamo2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,153

Combined PnL+$77.48

Seattle Sounders FC2 traders

Total Value$42.27

Total Shares755

Combined PnL+$17.88

Houston Dynamo — 50%Seattle Sounders FC — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NordhavenCap	Houston Dynamoavg 89.1¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$78.81	57% 2083-1561 (3644)
poshposhCTR<$100	Seattle Sounders FCavg 9¢	$13.5	$27.75	+$14.25	59% 9529-6541 (16070)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Seattle Sounders FCavg 1.8¢	$10.89	$14.52	+$3.63	49% 12313-12578 (24891)
PA pauleta23<$100	Houston Dynamoavg 94¢	$10	$8.67	-$1.33	67% 23153-11555 (34708)

NordhavenCap

Houston Dynamo

Invested

$1,017.38

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$78.81

Record

57%

2083-1561 (3644)

poshposhCTR<$100

Seattle Sounders FC

Invested

$13.5

Value

$27.75

PnL

+$14.25

Record

59%

9529-6541 (16070)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Seattle Sounders FC

Invested

$10.89

Value

$14.52

PnL

+$3.63

Record

49%

12313-12578 (24891)

pauleta23<$100

Houston Dynamo

Invested

$10

Value

$8.67

PnL

-$1.33

Record

67%

23153-11555 (34708)

Research grade

NeutralHouston Dynamo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Houston Dynamo

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Houston Dynamo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.