Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-10-28?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$2.4K
$29.08
54.3¢ → 55¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA marketmesh | Yesavg 55¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$0 | 58% 91-66 (157) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $1.69 | $31.06 | +$29.08 | 18% 3781-17074 (20855) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $30.25 | $30.25 | +$0 | 59% 44606-31003 (75609) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.