Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-10-28?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 88¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 29

Yes88¢No12¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 87.5¢

+91% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares7,423

Combined PnL+$1.7K

No3 traders

Total Value$519.1

Total Shares2,632

Combined PnL-$605.83

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 45.8¢	$2.5K	$4.1K	+$1.7K	50% 24584-24250 (48834)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 39.6¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$794.81	59% 44933-31331 (76264)
└ No leg	Noavg 39.6¢	$1.8K	$806.1	-$967.31
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.1¢	$142.38	$314.88	+$172.5
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 46¢	$523.6	$529.3	+$5.69	50% 32969-32506 (65475)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 43.1¢	$1.0K	$418.69	-$582.8	49% 12313-12578 (24891)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yesavg 47.1¢	$297.42	$324.84	+$27.42	52% 13603-12436 (26039)
FO foooool	Yesavg 47.3¢	$149.02	$172.22	+$23.2	50% 10665-10524 (21189)
poshposhCTR	Noavg 40¢	$121.71	$98.88	-$22.83	59% 9529-6541 (16070)
KE Kev69<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$77.67	$76.7	-$0.97	54% 573-483 (1056)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 41.1¢	$33.31	$44.94	+$11.63	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yesavg 58.8¢	$14.7	$16.63	+$1.92	58% 18445-13532 (31977)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Noavg 82¢	$1.72	$1.52	-$0.2	67% 23153-11555 (34708)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$2,471.63

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

50%

24584-24250 (48834)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$1,915.79

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$794.81

Record

59%

44933-31331 (76264)

Both legs:

No$1,773.4139.6¢-$967.31

Yes$142.3837.1¢+$172.5

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$523.6

Value

$529.3

PnL

+$5.69

Record

50%

32969-32506 (65475)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$1,001.49

Value

$418.69

PnL

-$582.8

Record

49%

12313-12578 (24891)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yes

Invested

$297.42

Value

$324.84

PnL

+$27.42

Record

52%

13603-12436 (26039)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$149.02

Value

$172.22

PnL

+$23.2

Record

50%

10665-10524 (21189)

poshposhCTR

Invested

$121.71

Value

$98.88

PnL

-$22.83

Record

59%

9529-6541 (16070)

Kev69<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.67

Value

$76.7

PnL

-$0.97

Record

54%

573-483 (1056)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.31

Value

$44.94

PnL

+$11.63

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.7

Value

$16.63

PnL

+$1.92

Record

58%

18445-13532 (31977)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Invested

$1.72

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$0.2

Record

67%

23153-11555 (34708)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.