Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Houston Dynamo leading at halftime?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 0.1¢ · $195 held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 100%
$195.38
-$77.27
63.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 81¢ | $260.05 | $163.74 | -$96.32 | 50% 32969-32506 (65475) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $11.55 | $30.97 | +$19.42 | 49% 12313-12578 (24891) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $1.04 | $0.66 | -$0.38 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.