Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 84¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 29

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$215.43

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 84¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares6,656

Combined PnL-$8.97

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,386

Combined PnL+$224.4

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 77¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$21.98	59% 44933-31331 (76264)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 74.9¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$33.52	50% 24584-24250 (48834)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 23¢	$690	$975	+$225	58% 41030-29693 (70723)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 71¢	$141.86	$140.72	-$1.15	52% 13603-12436 (26039)
└ No leg	Noavg 71¢	$95.59	$98.99	+$3.39
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.4¢	$46.27	$41.73	-$4.54
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$74.71	$75.92	+$1.21	50% 10665-10524 (21189)
cassandra.torchlightCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$25	$23	-$1.5	49% 265-271 (536)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 65¢	$19.5	$22.05	+$2.55	58% 18445-13532 (31977)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$7.28	$7.28	+$0	54% 4819-4049 (8868)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.8¢	$3.75	$3.45	-$0.3	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 68¢	$2.13	$2.14	+$0.02	50% 32969-32506 (65475)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$3,655.91

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$21.98

Record

59%

44933-31331 (76264)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,832.56

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$33.52

Record

50%

24584-24250 (48834)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$690

Value

$975

PnL

+$225

Record

58%

41030-29693 (70723)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$141.86

Value

$140.72

PnL

-$1.15

Record

52%

13603-12436 (26039)

Both legs:

Invested

$74.71

Value

$75.92

PnL

+$1.21

Record

50%

10665-10524 (21189)

cassandra.torchlightCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25

Value

$23

PnL

-$1.5

Record

49%

265-271 (536)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$19.5

Value

$22.05

PnL

+$2.55

Record

58%

18445-13532 (31977)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.28

Value

$7.28

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

4819-4049 (8868)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$2.13

Value

$2.14

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

32969-32506 (65475)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.