Seattle Sounders FC vs. Houston Dynamo: Both Teams to Score

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 87¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29

Yes13¢No87¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 29%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$384.4

Smart Money Entry

43.2¢ → 87¢

+101% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,449

Combined PnL+$418.94

Yes5 traders

Total Value$371.82

Total Shares702

Combined PnL-$34.54

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 44.1¢	$620.32	$1.0K	+$409.97	59% 44933-31331 (76264)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 57.9¢	$266.25	$275.92	+$9.67	50% 10665-10524 (21189)
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 58¢	$116	$70	-$46	56% 6940-5557 (12497)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 28.2¢	$21.57	$30.54	+$8.98	50% 32969-32506 (65475)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$15	$15.6	+$0.6	49% 12313-12578 (24891)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$6.3	$7.9	+$1.6	57% 2083-1561 (3644)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$2.8	$2.39	-$0.41	53% 3387-3055 (6442)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$620.32

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$409.97

Record

59%

44933-31331 (76264)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$266.25

Value

$275.92

PnL

+$9.67

Record

50%

10665-10524 (21189)

0xheavy888CTR

Yes

Invested

$116

Value

$70

PnL

-$46

Record

56%

6940-5557 (12497)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$21.57

Value

$30.54

PnL

+$8.98

Record

50%

32969-32506 (65475)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

12313-12578 (24891)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.3

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$1.6

Record

57%

2083-1561 (3644)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.39

PnL

-$0.41

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.