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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.

Portland Timbers vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 3.5

Resolved Over. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Under 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$438.01

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,727

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Over4 traders

Total Value$200.01

Total Shares200

Combined PnL+$143.07

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 67.7¢	$932.84	—	-$932.84	58% 47746-33933 (81679)
HRTradingCTR	Underavg 45.4¢	$127.97	—	-$127.97	53% 6276-5638 (11914)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 21¢	$74.92	$238	+$163.08	50% 11385-11227 (22612)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$24.94	—	-$24.94
└ Over leg	Overavg 21¢	$49.98	$238	+$188.02
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 61.3¢	$121.64	—	-$34.03	58% 43210-31449 (74659)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 58.5¢	$27.1	—	-$27.1	48% 9549-10314 (19863)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 28.5¢	$56.95	$200.01	+$143.07	50% 34214-33759 (67973)
LH lhetorarCTR	Underavg 79¢	$3.0K	—	$-1.4K	69% 161-73 (234)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 21.9¢	—	—	+$0	50% 26105-25975 (52080)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 21¢	—	—	+$0	49% 13257-13968 (27225)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Overavg 38¢	—	—	+$0	72% 6904-2705 (9609)

Invested

$932.84

Value

—

PnL

-$932.84

Record

58%

47746-33933 (81679)

Invested

$127.97

Value

—

PnL

-$127.97

Record

53%

6276-5638 (11914)

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$74.92

Value

$238

PnL

+$163.08

Record

50%

11385-11227 (22612)

Both legs:

Under$24.9443¢-$24.94

Over$49.9821¢+$188.02

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$121.64

Value

—

PnL

-$34.03

Record

58%

43210-31449 (74659)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$27.1

Value

—

PnL

-$27.1

Record

48%

9549-10314 (19863)

Invested

$56.95

Value

$200.01

PnL

+$143.07

Record

50%

34214-33759 (67973)

Invested

$2,999.98

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

69%

161-73 (234)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

26105-25975 (52080)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

13257-13968 (27225)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

72%

6904-2705 (9609)

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xece4be40...168c38

Slug

mls-por-hou-2026-11-01-total-3pt5

Traders in this Market

UpTheBlues

Under — $0

HRTrading

Under — $0

foooool

Arbitrage — excluded

VeryLucky888

Under — $0

topdogbigboi

Under — $0

SnakeBall

Over — $200.01

lhetorar

Under — $0

GoalLineGhost

Over — $0

LuckyLoo

Over — $0

AnonymousUsername

Over — $0

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