Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-11-01?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 2

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$417.78

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 90¢

+10% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares6,154

Combined PnL+$417.78

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 82.4¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$336.93	58% 47728-33904 (81632)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 18.3¢	$2.2K	$1.5K	-$657.61	50% 26089-25965 (52054)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.9¢	$817.12	$958.32	+$141.21
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18.3¢	$1.4K	$555.58	-$798.82
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 80¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	49% 13241-13951 (27192)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 80¢	$709.77	$785.54	+$75.77	50% 34197-33747 (67944)
TO torta.tech	Noavg 90¢	$104.4	$106.14	+$1.74	62% 8259-4967 (13226)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 78¢	$78.43	$79.43	+$1.51	58% 43195-31436 (74631)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 91¢	$73.98	$74.39	+$0.41	51% 6132-5855 (11987)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 80¢	$59.88	$59.88	+$0	50% 11378-11225 (22603)
0xheavy888<$100	Noavg 79¢	$52.48	$52.48	+$0	55% 7414-5959 (13373)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 80¢	$39.23	$41.81	+$2.58	52% 14000-12774 (26774)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 92¢	$23.37	$22.28	-$1.09	48% 9522-10247 (19769)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 92¢	$22.5	$22.26	-$0.24	50% 19648-20016 (39664)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 78¢	$7.02	$7.2	+$0.18	53% 6253-5611 (11864)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$2,790.93

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$336.93

Record

58%

47728-33904 (81632)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,171.52

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$657.61

Record

50%

26089-25965 (52054)

Both legs:

No$817.1278.9¢+$141.21

Yes$1,354.418.3¢-$798.82

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,159.12

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

13241-13951 (27192)

SnakeBall

Invested

$709.77

Value

$785.54

PnL

+$75.77

Record

50%

34197-33747 (67944)

torta.tech

Invested

$104.4

Value

$106.14

PnL

+$1.74

Record

62%

8259-4967 (13226)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$78.43

Value

$79.43

PnL

+$1.51

Record

58%

43195-31436 (74631)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$73.98

Value

$74.39

PnL

+$0.41

Record

51%

6132-5855 (11987)

foooool<$100

Invested

$59.88

Value

$59.88

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

11378-11225 (22603)

0xheavy888<$100

Invested

$52.48

Value

$52.48

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

7414-5959 (13373)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$39.23

Value

$41.81

PnL

+$2.58

Record

52%

14000-12774 (26774)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$23.37

Value

$22.28

PnL

-$1.09

Record

48%

9522-10247 (19769)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$22.5

Value

$22.26

PnL

-$0.24

Record

50%

19648-20016 (39664)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$7.02

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

6253-5611 (11864)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.