Will Portland Timbers vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 84¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$4.3K
-$92.27
76¢ → 83.5¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 76¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$29.83 | 50% 26089-25965 (52054) |
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR | Yesavg 24¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$76.43 | 51% 876-832 (1708) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 19.9¢ | $266.93 | $221.1 | -$45.83 | 58% 47728-33904 (81632) |
LA lavendergooms<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $9.2 | $8.49 | -$0.09 | 52% 2644-2394 (5038) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.1¢ | $5.07 | $5.23 | +$0.16 | 58% 43195-31436 (74631) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.3¢ | $3.35 | $3.45 | +$0.1 | 57% 18823-13930 (32753) |
Invested
$2,250.11
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$29.83
Record
50%
26089-25965 (52054)
Invested
$1,834.34
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$76.43
Record
51%
876-832 (1708)
Invested
$266.93
Value
$221.1
PnL
-$45.83
Record
58%
47728-33904 (81632)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$8.49
PnL
-$0.09
Record
52%
2644-2394 (5038)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$5.07
Value
$5.23
PnL
+$0.16
Record
58%
43195-31436 (74631)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.45
PnL
+$0.1
Record
57%
18823-13930 (32753)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.