Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Portland Timbers vs. Houston Dynamo: Both Teams to Score

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 41¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 2

Yes59¢No41¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$11.61

Smart Money Entry

44.1¢ → 41¢

-7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,211

Combined PnL+$3.39

Yes3 traders

Total Value$566.69

Total Shares948

Combined PnL+$8.23

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 43.9¢	$978.85	$989.28	+$10.43	58% 47728-33904 (81632)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 59.3¢	$338.61	$342.68	+$4.07	55% 7414-5959 (13373)
FO foooool	Yesavg 59¢	$190.13	$193.31	+$3.18	50% 11378-11225 (22603)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 48.5¢	$38.63	$31.85	-$6.78	50% 34197-33747 (67944)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 53.7¢	$29.73	$30.7	+$0.98	48% 9522-10247 (19769)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 45.7¢	$2.1	$1.84	-$0.26	53% 6253-5611 (11864)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$978.85

Value

$989.28

PnL

+$10.43

Record

58%

47728-33904 (81632)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$338.61

Value

$342.68

PnL

+$4.07

Record

55%

7414-5959 (13373)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$190.13

Value

$193.31

PnL

+$3.18

Record

50%

11378-11225 (22603)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$38.63

Value

$31.85

PnL

-$6.78

Record

50%

34197-33747 (67944)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.73

Value

$30.7

PnL

+$0.98

Record

48%

9522-10247 (19769)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.84

PnL

-$0.26

Record

53%

6253-5611 (11864)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.2%

41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$131.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

231.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.