New York City FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 99¢ · $29K held · ended Oct 31

Over1¢Under99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$28.6K

Combined PnL

$-3.0K

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 99¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$28.2K

Total Shares31,851

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Over3 traders

Total Value$385.28

Total Shares3,211

Combined PnL-$21.41

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alohaa	Underavg 99¢	$29.7K	$26.4K	$-3.3K	64% 1217-697 (1914)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 83.1¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$245.02	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 40¢	$268.11	$247.49	-$20.62	32% 731-1558 (2289)
AN AnonymousUsername	Underavg 59¢	$143.9	$214.63	+$42.68	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 12¢	$134.11	$133.67	-$0.44	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 70¢	$24.99	$35.68	+$10.69	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 71¢	$6	$7	+$1	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$4.47	$4.13	-$0.34	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

alohaa

Under

Invested

$29,700

Value

$26.4K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

64%

1217-697 (1914)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,319.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$245.02

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$268.11

Value

$247.49

PnL

-$20.62

Record

32%

731-1558 (2289)

AnonymousUsername

Under

Invested

$143.9

Value

$214.63

PnL

+$42.68

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$134.11

Value

$133.67

PnL

-$0.44

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$24.99

Value

$35.68

PnL

+$10.69

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

Value

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.47

Value

$4.13

PnL

-$0.34

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.