Spread: New York City FC (-1.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold CF Montréal (71%) · CF Montréal at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

New York City FC<1¢CF Montréal>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CF Montréal

Consensus Traders

CF Montréal 71%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$643.18

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 99.6¢

+73% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCF Montréal at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CF Montréal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

New York City FC0%

CF Montréal100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CF Montréal5 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares5,566

Combined PnL+$804.99

New York City FC2 traders

Total Value$299.56

Total Shares1,035

Combined PnL-$161.81

CF Montréal — 71%New York City FC — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on CF Montréal. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on New York City FC) and the top 1000 (5 on CF Montréal) disagree here.

whaleCF Montréal 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpCF Montréal 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCF Montréal 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNew York City FC 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000CF Montréal 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	CF Montréalavg 57¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$684.91	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
GO GoalLineGhost	CF Montréalavg 59.1¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$99.4	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
VeryLucky888CTR	New York City FCavg 43¢	$990	$290.01	-$160	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
AN AnonymousUsername	CF Montréalavg 55¢	$167.57	$190.35	+$22.79	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
0xheavy888	CF Montréalavg 55.3¢	$152.67	$142	-$10.67	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	CF Montréalavg 56¢	$31.92	$40.47	+$8.55	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
HRTradingCTR<$100	New York City FCavg 22.3¢	$11.36	$9.56	-$1.81	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

UpTheBlues

CF Montréal

Invested

$2,073.99

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$684.91

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

GoalLineGhost

CF Montréal

Invested

$2,029.1

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$99.4

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

VeryLucky888CTR

New York City FC

Invested

$990

Value

$290.01

PnL

-$160

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

AnonymousUsername

CF Montréal

Invested

$167.57

Value

$190.35

PnL

+$22.79

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

0xheavy888

CF Montréal

Invested

$152.67

Value

$142

PnL

-$10.67

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

CF Montréal

Invested

$31.92

Value

$40.47

PnL

+$8.55

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

HRTradingCTR<$100

New York City FC

Invested

$11.36

Value

$9.56

PnL

-$1.81

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralCF Montréal at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

CF Montréal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on CF Montréal. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on New York City FC) and the top 1000 (5 on CF Montréal) disagree here.

whaleCF Montréal 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpCF Montréal 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCF Montréal 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNew York City FC 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000CF Montréal 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CF Montréal wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.