Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will New York City FC win on 2026-10-31?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 32¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 31

Yes69¢No31¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

-$89.83

Smart Money Entry

31.9¢ → 31.5¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,440

Combined PnL-$12.03

No10 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares21,924

Combined PnL-$77.8

Yes — 23%No — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 68.9¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$12.66	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 31.3¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$17.84	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Noavg 32¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$25	32% 731-1553 (2284)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 33¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$68.1	51% 1453-1400 (2853)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 31.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$10.64	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
└ No leg	Noavg 31.6¢	$742.77	$740.81	-$1.96
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67¢	$563	$575.61	+$12.6
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 31.7¢	$1.5K	$692.15	+$6.84	58% 41980-30479 (72459)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 31.9¢	$585.61	$577.63	-$7.98	53% 15968-14143 (30111)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 32¢	$443.4	$436.48	-$6.93	49% 12659-13060 (25719)
HI hi774cCTR	Noavg 31¢	$243.11	$246.89	+$3.77	52% 4733-4453 (9186)
HRTrading	Yesavg 68¢	$120.19	$121.07	+$0.88	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
FO fooooolCTR	Noavg 31¢	$101.06	$102.69	+$1.63	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 31.6¢	$60.59	$60.48	-$0.11	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$34.5	$34.25	-$0.25	52% 13799-12598 (26397)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$14.55	$14.78	+$0.23	51% 6015-5713 (11728)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$2,284.63

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$12.66

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$2,113.75

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$17.84

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Invested

$1,599.99

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$25

Record

32%

731-1553 (2284)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$1,498.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$68.1

Record

51%

1453-1400 (2853)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,305.77

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$10.64

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

Both legs:

No$742.7731.6¢-$1.96

Yes$56367¢+$12.6

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,532.39

Value

$692.15

PnL

+$6.84

Record

58%

41980-30479 (72459)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$585.61

Value

$577.63

PnL

-$7.98

Record

53%

15968-14143 (30111)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$443.4

Value

$436.48

PnL

-$6.93

Record

49%

12659-13060 (25719)

hi774cCTR

Invested

$243.11

Value

$246.89

PnL

+$3.77

Record

52%

4733-4453 (9186)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$120.19

Value

$121.07

PnL

+$0.88

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

fooooolCTR

Invested

$101.06

Value

$102.69

PnL

+$1.63

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$60.59

Value

$60.48

PnL

-$0.11

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.5

Value

$34.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

52%

13799-12598 (26397)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$14.55

Value

$14.78

PnL

+$0.23

Record

51%

6015-5713 (11728)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.