Will CF Montréal win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 88¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
1 arb excluded
$4.3K
-$19.51
87¢ → 87.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 87¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$18.07 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $1.0K | $999.99 | -$40 | 32% 731-1553 (2284) |
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $219.61 | $219.61 | -$0.92 | 74% 6686-2399 (9085) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 87¢ | $160.2 | $160.2 | -$0.92 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 13¢ | $59.41 | $59.41 | +$0 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $85.71 | $87.17 | +$1.46 | 53% 4726-4250 (8976) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $23.94 | $23.94 | +$0.92 | 55% 1746-1439 (3185) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $2 | $1.04 | +$0.04 | 53% 2185-1930 (4115) |
Invested
$2,935.62
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$18.07
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
Invested
$1,039.99
Value
$999.99
PnL
-$40
Record
32%
731-1553 (2284)
Invested
$219.61
Value
$219.61
PnL
-$0.92
Record
74%
6686-2399 (9085)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$85.71
Value
$87.17
PnL
+$1.46
Record
53%
4726-4250 (8976)
Invested
$23.94
Value
$23.94
PnL
+$0.92
Record
55%
1746-1439 (3185)
Invested
$2
Value
$1.04
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
2185-1930 (4115)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.