Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (70%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will New York City FC vs. CF Montréal end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 30¢ · $82 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$82.16
$3.75
Research grade
NeutralNo at 30%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $49.88 | $52.78 | +$2.9 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $13.47 | $15.49 | +$2.01 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $8.45 | $8.85 | +$0.4 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Yesavg 10.8¢ | $5.52 | $4.59 | -$0.94 | 52% 13817-12605 (26422) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $1.08 | $0.45 | -$0.63 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
Invested
$49.88
Value
$52.78
PnL
+$2.9
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
Invested
$13.47
Value
$15.49
PnL
+$2.01
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Invested
$8.45
Value
$8.85
PnL
+$0.4
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$5.52
Value
$4.59
PnL
-$0.94
Record
52%
13817-12605 (26422)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$0.63
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.