New York City FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
$1.8K
$159.31
81.3¢ → 94¢
+16% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 88.4¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$29.07 | 59% 44789-31177 (75966) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 69.9¢ | $560.28 | $700.4 | +$140.12 | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 78¢ | $49.92 | $47.04 | -$2.88 | 50% 10588-10447 (21035) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 38.7¢ | $26.9 | $18.41 | -$8.48 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $3.6 | $4.41 | +$0.81 | 49% 18690-19120 (37810) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $1.53 | $2.21 | +$0.68 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
Invested
$1,002.87
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$29.07
Record
59%
44789-31177 (75966)
Invested
$560.28
Value
$700.4
PnL
+$140.12
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
Invested
$49.92
Value
$47.04
PnL
-$2.88
Record
50%
10588-10447 (21035)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$26.9
Value
$18.41
PnL
-$8.48
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$4.41
PnL
+$0.81
Record
49%
18690-19120 (37810)
Invested
$1.53
Value
$2.21
PnL
+$0.68
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.