New York City FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 77¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 28

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

44.3¢ → 76.5¢

+73% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares6,196

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Over3 traders

Total Value$177.85

Total Shares657

Combined PnL-$46.75

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 45.2¢	$2.3K	$3.6K	+$1.3K	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 40.6¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$437.51	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.6¢	$2.2K	$1.4K	-$765.54
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.3¢	$629	$957.03	+$328.03
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 49.4¢	$348.97	$505.21	+$156.24	49% 12209-12458 (24667)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 66.8¢	$509.9	$434.68	-$75.23	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$210.78	$329.4	+$118.61
└ Over leg	Overavg 66.8¢	$299.12	$105.28	-$193.84
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 29¢	$87.72	$208.77	+$121.05	50% 32883-32441 (65324)
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 33.8¢	$202.66	$158.92	-$43.74	50% 10588-10447 (21035)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191ARB<$100	Underavg 66¢	$53.5	$50	-$3.5	47% 4472-4947 (9419)
└ Under leg	Underavg 66¢	$33	$30	-$3
└ Over leg	Overavg 41¢	$20.5	$20	-$0.5
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 18¢	$23.44	$33.86	+$10.42	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 33.4¢	$18.07	$14.61	-$3.46	55% 8126-6560 (14686)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 83¢	$3.87	$4.32	+$0.45	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,290.18

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,829.25

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$437.51

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

Both legs:

Over$2,200.2540.6¢-$765.54

Under$62948.3¢+$328.03

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$348.97

Value

$505.21

PnL

+$156.24

Record

49%

12209-12458 (24667)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$509.9

Value

$434.68

PnL

-$75.23

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

Both legs:

Under$210.7849¢+$118.61

Over$299.1266.8¢-$193.84

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$87.72

Value

$208.77

PnL

+$121.05

Record

50%

32883-32441 (65324)

fooooolCTR

Over

Invested

$202.66

Value

$158.92

PnL

-$43.74

Record

50%

10588-10447 (21035)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$53.5

Value

$50

PnL

-$3.5

Record

47%

4472-4947 (9419)

Both legs:

Invested

$23.44

Value

$33.86

PnL

+$10.42

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.07

Value

$14.61

PnL

-$3.46

Record

55%

8126-6560 (14686)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.87

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.