New York City FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 0.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 61¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 38%
$3.0K
$515.07
71.4¢ → 61.3¢
-14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 71.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$38.54 | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 25.6¢ | $766.92 | $1.0K | +$270.99 | 59% 44789-31177 (75966) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 7.1¢ | $77.33 | $363.96 | +$286.63 | 50% 32883-32441 (65324) |
AN Anon455 | Overavg 66.4¢ | $166 | $166.75 | +$0.75 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 78.8¢ | $71.91 | $65.56 | -$6.35 | 50% 10588-10447 (21035) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 6.4¢ | $6.4 | $7.3 | +$0.9 | 59% 9478-6467 (15945) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 10.1¢ | $0.59 | $1.37 | +$0.78 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 8.7¢ | $0.54 | $0.45 | -$0.09 | 49% 12209-12458 (24667) |
Invested
$1,375.84
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$38.54
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
Invested
$766.92
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$270.99
Record
59%
44789-31177 (75966)
Invested
$77.33
Value
$363.96
PnL
+$286.63
Record
50%
32883-32441 (65324)
Invested
$166
Value
$166.75
PnL
+$0.75
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Invested
$71.91
Value
$65.56
PnL
-$6.35
Record
50%
10588-10447 (21035)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$6.4
Value
$7.3
PnL
+$0.9
Record
59%
9478-6467 (15945)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.59
Value
$1.37
PnL
+$0.78
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$0.09
Record
49%
12209-12458 (24667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.