Will New York City FC win on 2026-10-28?

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (46%) · No at 68¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28

Yes33¢No67¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$87.72

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 67.5¢

+37% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$791.56

Total Shares1,397

Combined PnL+$101.38

Yes7 traders

Total Value$167.83

Total Shares429

Combined PnL-$13.66

No — 46%Yes — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 46¢	$319	$424.65	+$105.65	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 46¢	$231.45	$226.45	-$2.48	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$74.88	$72	-$2.88	50% 10588-10447 (21035)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yesavg 38.9¢	$70.28	$70.26	-$0.02	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.9¢	$43.97	$37.85	-$6.11
└ No leg	Noavg 54¢	$26.31	$32.41	+$6.09
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 64.5¢	$52.71	$55.95	+$3.24	50% 32883-32441 (65324)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 67¢	$40.59	$41.49	+$0.91	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 71.4¢	$44.11	$38.02	-$6.09	59% 30128-20863 (50991)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$41.86	$35.04	-$6.82	49% 18690-19120 (37810)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.9¢	$25.22	$26.77	+$1.55	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$22.85	$18.11	-$4.74	59% 9478-6467 (15945)
US User7429CTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$8.58	$7.95	-$0.63	55% 8126-6560 (14686)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$5.4	$5.65	+$0.25	52% 5899-5543 (11442)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 62¢	$4.85	$5	+$0.15	58% 18441-13525 (31966)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$5	$2.3	-$0.4	47% 2102-2381 (4483)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$319

Value

$424.65

PnL

+$105.65

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$231.45

Value

$226.45

PnL

-$2.48

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.88

Value

$72

PnL

-$2.88

Record

50%

10588-10447 (21035)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.28

Value

$70.26

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

Both legs:

Yes$43.9738.9¢-$6.11

No$26.3154¢+$6.09

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$52.71

Value

$55.95

PnL

+$3.24

Record

50%

32883-32441 (65324)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$40.59

Value

$41.49

PnL

+$0.91

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$44.11

Value

$38.02

PnL

-$6.09

Record

59%

30128-20863 (50991)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.86

Value

$35.04

PnL

-$6.82

Record

49%

18690-19120 (37810)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.22

Value

$26.77

PnL

+$1.55

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.85

Value

$18.11

PnL

-$4.74

Record

59%

9478-6467 (15945)

User7429CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.58

Value

$7.95

PnL

-$0.63

Record

55%

8126-6560 (14686)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.65

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

5899-5543 (11442)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.4

Record

47%

2102-2381 (4483)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.