New York City FC vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to Score

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 86¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$409.64

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 85.5¢

+70% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,359

Combined PnL+$453.68

Yes3 traders

Total Value$97.25

Total Shares322

Combined PnL-$44.04

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 53.2¢	$951.78	$1.2K	+$238.6	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 41.2¢	$203.05	$389.48	+$186.43	50% 32883-32441 (65324)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 44.2¢	$124.83	$86.09	-$38.74	50% 10588-10447 (21035)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 39¢	$18.62	$37.96	+$19.34	59% 9478-6467 (15945)
RO Rocko33<$100	Noavg 43¢	$9.89	$19.21	+$9.31	64% 1014-578 (1592)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 49.3¢	$11.48	$7.81	-$3.67	49% 12209-12458 (24667)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.1¢	$4.98	$3.36	-$1.62	53% 2097-1856 (3953)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 44¢	$2.09	$2.09	+$0	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$951.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$238.6

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

SnakeBall

Invested

$203.05

Value

$389.48

PnL

+$186.43

Record

50%

32883-32441 (65324)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$124.83

Value

$86.09

PnL

-$38.74

Record

50%

10588-10447 (21035)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$18.62

Value

$37.96

PnL

+$19.34

Record

59%

9478-6467 (15945)

Rocko33<$100

Invested

$9.89

Value

$19.21

PnL

+$9.31

Record

64%

1014-578 (1592)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.48

Value

$7.81

PnL

-$3.67

Record

49%

12209-12458 (24667)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.98

Value

$3.36

PnL

-$1.62

Record

53%

2097-1856 (3953)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$2.09

Value

$2.09

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.