Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-10-28?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 80¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$131.48

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 79.5¢

+11% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,000

Combined PnL+$128.65

Yes1 trader

Total Value$18.79

Total Shares84

Combined PnL+$2.83

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 72¢	$700.92	$787.65	+$86.73	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 72.9¢	$438.74	$463.04	+$24.3	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 70¢	$290.69	$305.22	+$14.53	49% 12209-12458 (24667)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 73.4¢	$127.11	$124.65	-$2.46	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.4¢	$82.66	$91.17	+$8.52
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.2¢	$44.45	$33.47	-$10.98
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$97.06	$93.97	-$3.08	50% 10588-10447 (21035)
└ No leg	Noavg 70.1¢	$54.68	$61.25	+$6.57
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.8¢	$42.38	$32.73	-$9.65
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 73.6¢	$32.26	$33.78	+$1.52	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.1¢	$15.96	$18.79	+$2.83	50% 32883-32441 (65324)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 71.2¢	$13.32	$13.74	+$0.42	67% 23140-11541 (34681)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 79¢	$5.32	$5.19	-$0.13	53% 15769-13947 (29716)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 60¢	$4.05	$5	+$0.95	58% 18441-13525 (31966)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 65¢	$1.86	$2.19	+$0.33	59% 9478-6467 (15945)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$700.92

Value

$787.65

PnL

+$86.73

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$438.74

Value

$463.04

PnL

+$24.3

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$290.69

Value

$305.22

PnL

+$14.53

Record

49%

12209-12458 (24667)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$127.11

Value

$124.65

PnL

-$2.46

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

Both legs:

No$82.6673.4¢+$8.52

Yes$44.4525.2¢-$10.98

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$97.06

Value

$93.97

PnL

-$3.08

Record

50%

10588-10447 (21035)

Both legs:

No$54.6870.1¢+$6.57

Yes$42.3827.8¢-$9.65

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$32.26

Value

$33.78

PnL

+$1.52

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.96

Value

$18.79

PnL

+$2.83

Record

50%

32883-32441 (65324)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$13.32

Value

$13.74

PnL

+$0.42

Record

67%

23140-11541 (34681)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$5.32

Value

$5.19

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

PnL

+$0.95

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

$2.19

PnL

+$0.33

Record

59%

9478-6467 (15945)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.