Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 70¢ · $401 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$401.11
$6.24
81.3¢ → 70¢
-14% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO torta.tech | Noavg 81¢ | $142.56 | $149.6 | +$7.04 | 63% 7985-4775 (12760) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 75.6¢ | $98.78 | $108.92 | +$10.14 | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75.6¢ | $87.73 | $81.28 | -$6.45 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 12¢ | $11.06 | $27.64 | +$16.59 | |
FO foooool | Noavg 83¢ | $99.39 | $106.02 | +$6.63 | 50% 10588-10447 (21035) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $24.67 | $15 | -$9.66 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $11.19 | $12.71 | +$1.53 | 52% 13597-12434 (26031) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Noavg 81.5¢ | $8.15 | $8.85 | +$0.7 | 58% 18441-13525 (31966) |
Invested
$142.56
Value
$149.6
PnL
+$7.04
Record
63%
7985-4775 (12760)
Invested
$98.78
Value
$108.92
PnL
+$10.14
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.39
Value
$106.02
PnL
+$6.63
Record
50%
10588-10447 (21035)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$24.67
Value
$15
PnL
-$9.66
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$11.19
Value
$12.71
PnL
+$1.53
Record
52%
13597-12434 (26031)
Invested
$8.15
Value
$8.85
PnL
+$0.7
Record
58%
18441-13525 (31966)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.