Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will New England Revolution win on 2026-10-28?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 27¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Yes27¢No73¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 26.5¢

-50% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,156

Combined PnL-$805.55

No2 traders

Total Value$844.48

Total Shares2,122

Combined PnL-$300.92

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 54.6¢	$1.8K	$1.0K	-$822.68	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
AN Anon455	Noavg 54¢	$1.1K	$821.42	-$301.53	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$101.76	$100.06	-$1.7	49% 18690-19120 (37810)
cassandra.torchlightCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$73.49	$86.99	-$5.25	50% 264-269 (533)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$62.02	$85.27	+$23.26	50% 1143-1136 (2279)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 75.1¢	$80.41	$67.95	-$12.46	50% 10588-10447 (21035)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$33.16	$43.28	+$10.12	53% 15769-13947 (29716)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 61.8¢	$36.51	$37.77	+$1.26	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 37¢	$22.45	$23.06	+$0.61	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$6.5	$8.4	+$1.9	58% 18441-13525 (31966)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,836.52

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$822.68

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

Anon455

Invested

$1,122.95

Value

$821.42

PnL

-$301.53

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$101.76

Value

$100.06

PnL

-$1.7

Record

49%

18690-19120 (37810)

cassandra.torchlightCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.49

Value

$86.99

PnL

-$5.25

Record

50%

264-269 (533)

mooseborzoiiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.02

Value

$85.27

PnL

+$23.26

Record

50%

1143-1136 (2279)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.41

Value

$67.95

PnL

-$12.46

Record

50%

10588-10447 (21035)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.16

Value

$43.28

PnL

+$10.12

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.51

Value

$37.77

PnL

+$1.26

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$22.45

Value

$23.06

PnL

+$0.61

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.5

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$1.9

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.