New England Revolution vs. Inter Miami CF: Both Teams to Score

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 63¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 2

Yes38¢No62¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$3.3K

Smart Money Entry

33.6¢ → 62.5¢

+86% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares13,937

Combined PnL+$3.9K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,607

Combined PnL-$579.97

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 33.8¢	$4.4K	$8.2K	+$3.8K	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Noavg 28.6¢	$541.52	$549.95	+$8.42	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
└ No leg	Noavg 28.6¢	$320.02	$324.77	+$4.75
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 69.8¢	$221.5	$225.17	+$3.67
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 70¢	$840	$510	-$330	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 50.9¢	$417.15	$303.37	-$113.78	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 30.4¢	$188.89	$254.98	+$66.1	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Yesavg 61.7¢	$336.1	$204.61	-$131.49	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 30¢	$57.94	$83.02	+$25.08	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 49.9¢	$25.42	$18.21	-$4.71	53% 2255-1981 (4236)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 36.4¢	$11.11	$15.25	+$4.14	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 25¢	$3.4	$3.47	+$0.07	62% 1191-725 (1916)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$4,423.19

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Invested

$541.52

Value

$549.95

PnL

+$8.42

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

Both legs:

Invested

$840

Value

$510

PnL

-$330

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$417.15

Value

$303.37

PnL

-$113.78

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

SnakeBall

Invested

$188.89

Value

$254.98

PnL

+$66.1

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

topdogbigboiCTR

Yes

Invested

$336.1

Value

$204.61

PnL

-$131.49

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$57.94

Value

$83.02

PnL

+$25.08

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.42

Value

$18.21

PnL

-$4.71

Record

53%

2255-1981 (4236)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$11.11

Value

$15.25

PnL

+$4.14

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.07

Record

62%

1191-725 (1916)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.