Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (88%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Nashville SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 12¢ · $523 held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
1 arb excluded
$523.45
-$38.7
35.8¢ → 12¢
-67% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 36¢ | $383.59 | $320 | -$39.62 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $126.07 | $118.33 | -$7.75 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 36¢ | $90 | $80 | -$10 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 64¢ | $36.07 | $38.33 | +$2.25 | |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 81.5¢ | $37.82 | $39.42 | +$1.6 | 50% 10588-10447 (21035) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $27.12 | $25.52 | -$1.6 | 49% 18690-19120 (37810) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $25.05 | $16.66 | +$1.13 | 56% 6932-5550 (12482) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $3.74 | $3.52 | -$0.22 | 50% 6821-6834 (13655) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$383.59
Value
$320
PnL
-$39.62
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$126.07
Value
$118.33
PnL
-$7.75
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Both legs:
Invested
$37.82
Value
$39.42
PnL
+$1.6
Record
50%
10588-10447 (21035)
Invested
$27.12
Value
$25.52
PnL
-$1.6
Record
49%
18690-19120 (37810)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$25.05
Value
$16.66
PnL
+$1.13
Record
56%
6932-5550 (12482)
Invested
$3.74
Value
$3.52
PnL
-$0.22
Record
50%
6821-6834 (13655)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.