Nashville SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (18%) · Under at 71¢ · $49K held · ended Oct 29

Over29¢Under71¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 18%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$49.1K

Combined PnL

-$495.86

Smart Money Entry

44.4¢ → 71¢

+60% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 11 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over29%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$32.3K

Total Shares75,004

Combined PnL+$88.14

Over9 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares14,680

Combined PnL-$584

Under — 18%Over — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 82% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH theowalcott	Underavg 44.4¢	$33.3K	$32.2K	+$87.98	49% 101-104 (205)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 55.5¢	$10.9K	$9.0K	$-1.9K	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.5¢	$3.1K	$4.8K	+$1.7K
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.5¢	$7.7K	$4.2K	$-3.6K
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 56¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	-$29.01	49% 12209-12458 (24667)
CA CannaeCTR	Overavg 56.6¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$10.26	53% 15769-13947 (29716)
FO forecastication4CTR	Overavg 57¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$29	49% 1130-1160 (2290)
poshposhCTR	Overavg 56¢	$840	$540	-$300	59% 9478-6467 (15945)
HRTradingCTR	Overavg 55¢	$601.83	$368.63	-$233.2	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 57¢	$285	$285	+$0	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
tradecraftCTR	Overavg 55¢	$274.41	$284.39	+$2.5	52% 5899-5543 (11442)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 57¢	$228	$228	-$6	56% 6932-5550 (12482)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$25.02	$25.46	+$0.45	51% 3897-3816 (7713)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 36¢	$1.31	$1.6	+$0.16	58% 28159-20759 (48918)

theowalcott

Under

Invested

$33,288.11

Value

$32.2K

PnL

+$87.98

Record

49%

101-104 (205)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$10,872.8

Value

$9.0K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

Both legs:

Under$3,137.8745.5¢+$1.7K

Over$7,734.9255.5¢$-3.6K

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$3,248.89

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$29.01

Record

49%

12209-12458 (24667)

CannaeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,650.77

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$10.26

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

forecastication4CTR

Over

Invested

$1,101.81

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$29

Record

49%

1130-1160 (2290)

poshposhCTR

Over

Invested

$840

Value

$540

PnL

-$300

Record

59%

9478-6467 (15945)

HRTradingCTR

Over

Invested

$601.83

Value

$368.63

PnL

-$233.2

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$285

Value

$285

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

tradecraftCTR

Over

Invested

$274.41

Value

$284.39

PnL

+$2.5

Record

52%

5899-5543 (11442)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$228

Value

$228

PnL

-$6

Record

56%

6932-5550 (12482)

GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.02

Value

$25.46

PnL

+$0.45

Record

51%

3897-3816 (7713)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$1.31

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$0.16

Record

58%

28159-20759 (48918)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 11 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 82% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.