Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (99%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Nashville SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 1.0¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 38%
$3.0K
$-1.9K
64.3¢ → 1¢
-98% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 62.8¢ | $4.1K | $2.2K | $-1.9K | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
FO foooool | Underavg 72.6¢ | $427.63 | $436.3 | +$8.67 | 50% 10588-10447 (21035) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 81¢ | $222.11 | $137.11 | -$85.01 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
 HRTrading | Underavg 24.6¢ | $33.72 | $129.29 | +$95.57 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 71.5¢ | $29.85 | $41.09 | +$11.24 | 59% 9478-6467 (15945) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Overavg 78¢ | $63.82 | $40.91 | -$22.91 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $11.5 | $25 | +$13.5 | 47% 4472-4947 (9419) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $1.14 | $3 | +$1.86 | 59% 44789-31177 (75966) |
Invested
$4,098.06
Value
$2.2K
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
Invested
$427.63
Value
$436.3
PnL
+$8.67
Record
50%
10588-10447 (21035)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$222.11
Value
$137.11
PnL
-$85.01
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
HRTradingInvested
$33.72
Value
$129.29
PnL
+$95.57
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
poshposh<$100Invested
$29.85
Value
$41.09
PnL
+$11.24
Record
59%
9478-6467 (15945)
Invested
$63.82
Value
$40.91
PnL
-$22.91
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Invested
$11.5
Value
$25
PnL
+$13.5
Record
47%
4472-4947 (9419)
Invested
$1.14
Value
$3
PnL
+$1.86
Record
59%
44789-31177 (75966)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.