Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nashville SC, while the market favors Philadelphia Union (86%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Nashville SC (50%) · Nashville SC at 14¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Nashville SC
6
Nashville SC 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
-$254.74
28.3¢ → 14¢
-51% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNashville SC at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Philadelphia Union 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Nashville SCavg 26.7¢ | $784.55 | $616.01 | -$168.54 | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Nashville SCavg 30.5¢ | $2.0K | $498.26 | -$119.79 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
CA Cannae | Philadelphia Unionavg 72.4¢ | $400.52 | $412.76 | +$12.23 | 53% 15769-13947 (29716) |
 0xheavy888 | Philadelphia Unionavg 69¢ | $276 | $300 | +$22 | 56% 6932-5550 (12482) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Philadelphia Unionavg 70¢ | $247.5 | $250 | +$2.5 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
| └ Philadelphia Union leg | Philadelphia Unionavg 70¢ | $175 | $187.5 | +$12.5 | |
| └ Nashville SC leg | Nashville SCavg 29¢ | $72.5 | $62.5 | -$10 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Philadelphia Unionavg 69.6¢ | $79.13 | $85.24 | +$6.11 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Nashville SCavg 30¢ | $45 | $37.5 | -$6.75 | 52% 5899-5543 (11442) |
Invested
$784.55
Value
$616.01
PnL
-$168.54
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,999.99
Value
$498.26
PnL
-$119.79
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$400.52
Value
$412.76
PnL
+$12.23
Record
53%
15769-13947 (29716)
0xheavy888Invested
$276
Value
$300
PnL
+$22
Record
56%
6932-5550 (12482)
Invested
$247.5
Value
$250
PnL
+$2.5
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$79.13
Value
$85.24
PnL
+$6.11
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$45
Value
$37.5
PnL
-$6.75
Record
52%
5899-5543 (11442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.