Will Nashville SC win on 2026-10-28?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 55¢ · $999 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$998.96
$3.16
54.5¢ → 54.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mooseborzoii | Yesavg 55¢ | $312.02 | $292.16 | -$19.86 | 50% 1138-1132 (2270) |
 us391CTR | Noavg 45¢ | $267.45 | $288.25 | +$20.8 | 51% 1646-1580 (3226) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 54¢ | $249.36 | $237.82 | -$11.54 | 49% 18595-19019 (37614) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 45.5¢ | $828.7 | $124.47 | +$10.86 | 58% 40752-29469 (70221) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $53.36 | $56.26 | +$2.9 | 58% 28121-20725 (48846) |
Invested
$312.02
Value
$292.16
PnL
-$19.86
Record
50%
1138-1132 (2270)
us391CTRInvested
$267.45
Value
$288.25
PnL
+$20.8
Record
51%
1646-1580 (3226)
Invested
$249.36
Value
$237.82
PnL
-$11.54
Record
49%
18595-19019 (37614)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$828.7
Value
$124.47
PnL
+$10.86
Record
58%
40752-29469 (70221)
Invested
$53.36
Value
$56.26
PnL
+$2.9
Record
58%
28121-20725 (48846)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.