Will Nashville SC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 68¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29

Yes33¢No67¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$26.64

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 67.5¢

-9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,113

Combined PnL+$22.6

Yes3 traders

Total Value$877.85

Total Shares3,582

Combined PnL+$4.04

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Noavg 75¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$6.72	52% 4657-4372 (9029)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 24.4¢	$867.26	$871.62	+$4.36	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
CA Cannae	Noavg 73.2¢	$483	$498.3	+$15.3	53% 15769-13947 (29716)
AN Anon455<$100	Noavg 76¢	$45.61	$45.31	-$0.3	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 73¢	$42.86	$43.74	+$0.88	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$5.5	$5.18	-$0.32	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$1.05	$1.05	+$0	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

hi774c

Invested

$1,007.34

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$6.72

Record

52%

4657-4372 (9029)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$867.26

Value

$871.62

PnL

+$4.36

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

Cannae

Invested

$483

Value

$498.3

PnL

+$15.3

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

Anon455<$100

Invested

$45.61

Value

$45.31

PnL

-$0.3

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$42.86

Value

$43.74

PnL

+$0.88

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$0.32

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.