Nashville SC vs. New York Red Bulls: O/U 3.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 52¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$1.14

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,987

Combined PnL-$2.91

Under5 traders

Total Value$488.12

Total Shares991

Combined PnL+$4.05

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
us391	Overavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0.44	51% 1713-1675 (3388)
AY ay118	Overavg 51¢	$620	$620	+$0	47% 36-41 (77)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48.5¢	$242.49	$244.99	+$2.5	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 48.5¢	$194	$196	+$2	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
BE berlinskies	Overavg 52¢	$187.13	$183.63	-$3.5	58% 5897-4320 (10217)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$37.24	$37.24	+$0	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Overavg 47¢	$14.77	$16.02	+$0.16	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$4.9	$5	-$0.05	52% 7507-6801 (14308)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$5.31	$4.9	-$0.4	53% 5677-5082 (10759)

us391

Over

Invested

$1,213.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0.44

Record

51%

1713-1675 (3388)

ay118

Over

Invested

$620

Value

$620

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

36-41 (77)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$242.49

Value

$244.99

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$194

Value

$196

PnL

+$2

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

berlinskies

Over

Invested

$187.13

Value

$183.63

PnL

-$3.5

Record

58%

5897-4320 (10217)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37.24

Value

$37.24

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Over

Invested

$14.77

Value

$16.02

PnL

+$0.16

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.31

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.