Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-11-01?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 60¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$280.86

Smart Money Entry

82.7¢ → 59.5¢

-28% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,851

Combined PnL-$135.85

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,828

Combined PnL+$416.71

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 85¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$8.36	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
CA Cannae	Noavg 85¢	$787.63	$801.12	+$13.49	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 28.5¢	$452.74	$796.7	+$343.97	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 78.8¢	$704.42	$568.4	-$136.02	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 35.8¢	$255.07	$285.47	+$30.4	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.8¢	$162.73	$188.86	+$26.13
└ No leg	Noavg 55.9¢	$92.34	$96.61	+$4.27
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 35¢	$214.79	$262.2	+$47.42	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
└ No leg	Noavg 35¢	$164.55	$166.9	+$2.35
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34¢	$50.24	$95.31	+$45.07
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 62.7¢	$180.32	$213.95	+$33.63	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.9¢	$85.35	$123.83	+$38.47
└ No leg	Noavg 62.7¢	$94.97	$90.12	-$4.84
tradecraft	Noavg 80.9¢	$227.1	$197.87	-$29.23	51% 6082-5802 (11884)
poshposhCTR	Yesavg 32.6¢	$121.09	$159.43	+$38.34	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 34.8¢	$100.47	$132.73	+$32.26	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 54¢	$35.24	$37.16	+$1.92	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 53¢	$14.98	$25.43	+$10.44	59% 30682-21402 (52084)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 69.5¢	$23.8	$19	-$4.8	58% 18786-13851 (32637)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$5.71	$7.85	+$2.14	53% 2255-1981 (4236)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$1,427.17

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$8.36

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

Cannae

Invested

$787.63

Value

$801.12

PnL

+$13.49

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$452.74

Value

$796.7

PnL

+$343.97

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$704.42

Value

$568.4

PnL

-$136.02

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$255.07

Value

$285.47

PnL

+$30.4

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Both legs:

Yes$162.7335.8¢+$26.13

No$92.3455.9¢+$4.27

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$214.79

Value

$262.2

PnL

+$47.42

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

Both legs:

No$164.5535¢+$2.35

Yes$50.2434¢+$45.07

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$180.32

Value

$213.95

PnL

+$33.63

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

Both legs:

Yes$85.3527.9¢+$38.47

No$94.9762.7¢-$4.84

tradecraft

Invested

$227.1

Value

$197.87

PnL

-$29.23

Record

51%

6082-5802 (11884)

poshposhCTR

Yes

Invested

$121.09

Value

$159.43

PnL

+$38.34

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$100.47

Value

$132.73

PnL

+$32.26

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$35.24

Value

$37.16

PnL

+$1.92

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$14.98

Value

$25.43

PnL

+$10.44

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$23.8

Value

$19

PnL

-$4.8

Record

58%

18786-13851 (32637)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.71

Value

$7.85

PnL

+$2.14

Record

53%

2255-1981 (4236)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.