Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Minnesota United FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: Sporting Kansas City O/U 1.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 50¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$5.6K
$232.34
74.4¢ → 50¢
-33% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 74.2¢ | $4.6K | $5.2K | +$417.92 | 50% 32883-32441 (65324) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 76¢ | $565.06 | $371.75 | -$193.31 | 49% 12209-12458 (24667) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $8.88 | $15.31 | +$6.43 | 59% 9478-6467 (15945) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $1.96 | $3.26 | +$1.3 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
Invested
$4,580.51
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$417.92
Record
50%
32883-32441 (65324)
Invested
$565.06
Value
$371.75
PnL
-$193.31
Record
49%
12209-12458 (24667)
poshposh<$100Invested
$8.88
Value
$15.31
PnL
+$6.43
Record
59%
9478-6467 (15945)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.96
Value
$3.26
PnL
+$1.3
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.