Spread: Minnesota United FC (-3.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Sporting Kansas City (50%) · Sporting Kansas City at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Sporting Kansas City
4
Sporting Kansas City 50%
$2.3K
$252.28
86.8¢ → 98.3¢
+13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSporting Kansas City at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Sporting Kansas Cityavg 86.7¢ | $1.9K | $2.2K | +$247.22 | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
FO foooool<$100 | Sporting Kansas Cityavg 88¢ | $100 | $98.86 | -$1.14 | 50% 10588-10447 (21035) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Minnesota United FCavg 13.2¢ | $18.73 | $23.35 | +$4.62 | 49% 12209-12458 (24667) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Minnesota United FCavg 14¢ | $8.82 | $10.4 | +$1.58 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
Invested
$1,919.28
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$247.22
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
Invested
$100
Value
$98.86
PnL
-$1.14
Record
50%
10588-10447 (21035)
Invested
$18.73
Value
$23.35
PnL
+$4.62
Record
49%
12209-12458 (24667)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.82
Value
$10.4
PnL
+$1.58
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.