Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-10-28?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 86¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 29

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

-$627.65

Smart Money Entry

86.3¢ → 86¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares7,767

Combined PnL-$641.38

Yes6 traders

Total Value$467.13

Total Shares3,217

Combined PnL+$13.73

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XW xwingboy	Noavg 86.4¢	$5.0K	$4.4K	-$632.11	64% 292-162 (454)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 86¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$2.24	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 14.2¢	$404.19	$383.93	-$20.26	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 84¢	$136.88	$74.54	-$6.94	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$36.27	$68.35	+$32.08	53% 15769-13947 (29716)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$7	$7.25	+$0.25	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 83¢	$4.15	$4.3	+$0.15	58% 18441-13525 (31966)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$1.96	$3.7	+$1.74	52% 5899-5543 (11442)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.2¢	$3.14	$3.21	+$0.07	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 87¢	$1.81	$1.57	-$0.24	67% 23140-11541 (34681)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$0.85	$0.7	-$0.15	64% 1014-578 (1592)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$632.11

Record

64%

292-162 (454)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,813.5

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$2.24

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$404.19

Value

$383.93

PnL

-$20.26

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$136.88

Value

$74.54

PnL

-$6.94

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.27

Value

$68.35

PnL

+$32.08

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$7.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.96

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$1.74

Record

52%

5899-5543 (11442)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.14

Value

$3.21

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$1.81

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$0.24

Record

67%

23140-11541 (34681)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.15

Record

64%

1014-578 (1592)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.