Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 6 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-10-28?

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 0.4¢ · $749 held · ended Oct 29

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$748.94

Combined PnL

-$404.72

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 0.4¢

-99% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$404.63

Total Shares628

Combined PnL-$72.91

No6 traders

Total Value$344.28

Total Shares1,047

Combined PnL-$331.82

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
cassandra.torchlight	Yesavg 68¢	$150	$119.12	-$30.88	50% 264-269 (533)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 52¢	$396.48	$118.29	-$278.18	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Noavg 53.4¢	$121.18	$98.89	-$22.29	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 69.4¢	$71.84	$78.79	+$6.95	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
FO fooooolCTR	Noavg 73.3¢	$105.74	$75.97	-$29.77	50% 10588-10447 (21035)
RO Rocko33	Yesavg 68.1¢	$176.89	$71.69	-$69.25	64% 1014-578 (1592)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Yesavg 50.5¢	$31.29	$61.07	+$29.78	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$55.26	$50.93	-$4.33	59% 9478-6467 (15945)
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Noavg 65.6¢	$35.45	$35.1	-$0.35	63% 7985-4775 (12760)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$24.44	$19.11	-$5.33	57% 2074-1552 (3626)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 58.2¢	$14.55	$14.25	-$0.3	58% 18441-13525 (31966)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$2.32	$2.78	+$0.46	49% 18690-19120 (37810)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$2.7	$1.78	-$0.93	59% 30128-20863 (50991)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$1.45	$1.13	-$0.32	67% 23140-11541 (34681)

cassandra.torchlight

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$119.12

PnL

-$30.88

Record

50%

264-269 (533)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$396.48

Value

$118.29

PnL

-$278.18

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Invested

$121.18

Value

$98.89

PnL

-$22.29

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.84

Value

$78.79

PnL

+$6.95

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

fooooolCTR

Invested

$105.74

Value

$75.97

PnL

-$29.77

Record

50%

10588-10447 (21035)

Rocko33

Yes

Invested

$176.89

Value

$71.69

PnL

-$69.25

Record

64%

1014-578 (1592)

UpTheBlues<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.29

Value

$61.07

PnL

+$29.78

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.26

Value

$50.93

PnL

-$4.33

Record

59%

9478-6467 (15945)

torta.techCTR<$100

Invested

$35.45

Value

$35.1

PnL

-$0.35

Record

63%

7985-4775 (12760)

NordhavenCap<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.44

Value

$19.11

PnL

-$5.33

Record

57%

2074-1552 (3626)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$14.55

Value

$14.25

PnL

-$0.3

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$0.46

Record

49%

18690-19120 (37810)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$0.93

Record

59%

30128-20863 (50991)

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$0.32

Record

67%

23140-11541 (34681)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6707.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

6807.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.