Inter Miami CF vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 6.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 98¢ · $353 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$353.12
$18.2
87.6¢ → 97.5¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 86.9¢ | $154.73 | $167.1 | +$13.5 | 58% 40871-29553 (70424) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 88¢ | $122.32 | $122.32 | -$0.7 | 56% 6927-5543 (12470) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $17.39 | $17.59 | +$0.1 | 58% 28150-20748 (48898) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 93¢ | $16.74 | $16.74 | +$0 | 50% 10569-10423 (20992) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 12¢ | $16.68 | $16.68 | +$0 | 50% 6816-6831 (13647) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 7¢ | $7.4 | $12.69 | +$5.29 | 50% 24432-24069 (48501) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$154.73
Value
$167.1
PnL
+$13.5
Record
58%
40871-29553 (70424)
0xheavy888Invested
$122.32
Value
$122.32
PnL
-$0.7
Record
56%
6927-5543 (12470)
Invested
$17.39
Value
$17.59
PnL
+$0.1
Record
58%
28150-20748 (48898)
Invested
$16.74
Value
$16.74
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
10569-10423 (20992)
Invested
$16.68
Value
$16.68
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
6816-6831 (13647)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$12.69
PnL
+$5.29
Record
50%
24432-24069 (48501)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.