Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (81%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Inter Miami CF vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 19¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
$2.0K
-$256.2
37.3¢ → 19¢
-49% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 81%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH OhWhenTheRedsCTR | Overavg 40¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$0 | 46% 52-60 (112) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 32.7¢ | $681.62 | $395.67 | -$285.96 | 50% 24432-24069 (48501) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 60¢ | $120 | $120 | +$0 | 56% 6927-5543 (12470) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 58.9¢ | $164.76 | $118.39 | +$29.88 | 58% 40871-29553 (70424) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 71.6¢ | $18.17 | $18.04 | -$0.13 | 53% 3186-2848 (6034) |
Invested
$1,366.72
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
52-60 (112)
Invested
$681.62
Value
$395.67
PnL
-$285.96
Record
50%
24432-24069 (48501)
0xheavy888Invested
$120
Value
$120
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
6927-5543 (12470)
VeryLucky888Invested
$164.76
Value
$118.39
PnL
+$29.88
Record
58%
40871-29553 (70424)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$18.17
Value
$18.04
PnL
-$0.13
Record
53%
3186-2848 (6034)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.