Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (88%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Inter Miami CF vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 12¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
1 arb excluded
$3.7K
$50.07
57.7¢ → 12¢
-79% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Overavg 60¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$0 | 50% 1143-1136 (2279) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 54.2¢ | $3.5K | $1.4K | $-2.1K | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 65.6¢ | $748.95 | $1.1K | +$306.96 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54.2¢ | $2.7K | $380.2 | $-2.4K | |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 39.7¢ | $280.83 | $312.18 | +$83.04 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Overavg 24.6¢ | $66.68 | $38.53 | -$28.15 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $23.6 | $35.62 | +$12.02 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $24.99 | $8.16 | -$16.83 | 50% 10588-10447 (21035) |
Invested
$1,915.9
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1143-1136 (2279)
Invested
$3,495.29
Value
$1.4K
PnL
$-2.1K
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$280.83
Value
$312.18
PnL
+$83.04
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$66.68
Value
$38.53
PnL
-$28.15
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$23.6
Value
$35.62
PnL
+$12.02
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$24.99
Value
$8.16
PnL
-$16.83
Record
50%
10588-10447 (21035)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.