Inter Miami CF vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 60¢ · $29K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
2 arb excluded
$28.7K
$-3.7K
93.7¢ → 59.5¢
-37% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH thetesterguy | Overavg 94¢ | $22.6K | $19.7K | $-2.9K | 94% 49-3 (52) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 71.6¢ | $5.3K | $5.4K | +$87.02 | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 71.6¢ | $4.6K | $4.2K | -$392.79 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 20.3¢ | $688.44 | $1.2K | +$479.81 | |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Overavg 63¢ | $848.86 | $1.5K | +$689.81 | 50% 10588-10447 (21035) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 6.6¢ | $143.21 | $872.55 | +$729.34 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 63¢ | $705.64 | $666.11 | -$39.53 | |
CH chongchong37CTR | Underavg 53¢ | $2.3K | $1.1K | $-1.2K | 54% 87-74 (161) |
 HRTradingCTR | Underavg 7¢ | $112.42 | $555.17 | +$442.75 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
AN Anon455 | Overavg 76.7¢ | $364.88 | $351.89 | -$12.99 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 91¢ | $40.95 | $42.3 | +$0.68 | 58% 28159-20759 (48918) |
Invested
$22,573.56
Value
$19.7K
PnL
$-2.9K
Record
94%
49-3 (52)
Invested
$5,320.57
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$87.02
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
Both legs:
Invested
$848.86
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$689.81
Record
50%
10588-10447 (21035)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,339.71
Value
$1.1K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
54%
87-74 (161)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$112.42
Value
$555.17
PnL
+$442.75
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$364.88
Value
$351.89
PnL
-$12.99
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Invested
$40.95
Value
$42.3
PnL
+$0.68
Record
58%
28159-20759 (48918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.